Saturday, December 6, 2008

Probabilities and Certainties

When I was in psychology 101 at Bradley University, Dr. Smith told us about his experiment with predicting heads or tails in coin tosses. He said that he and some others took 1,000 pennies and flipped them one by one and then tallied the results. And the result was that there were 500 heads and 500 tails. I don't really remember what he was trying to teach with that anecdote, but it stuck in my memory as the gospel truth.
Fast forward to today and the problem of certainties. For example, the saying goes that the bread always falls jelly-side down. I've had occasion to test that out, and I'd say it was more like an 80% likelihood, but others would argue with me. I'm not about to get 1,000 slices of jelly bread to try it out.
I do have one certainty, however. When you put your cup of coffee in the microwave and start it up, the turn table will revolve and will come to a stop with the cup on the far side of the oven. Jim and I have tested it hundreds of times, and it always works out that way!

2 comments:

Norm Deplume said...

I figure that I usually heat my coffee at multiples of 30 seconds. My microwave must take 1 minute for the turntable to revolve.


that doesn't explain why the handle is in the back when I heat the coffee for 60 seconds, though, does it?

Anonymous said...

So! Put the cup in the middle of the revolving plate and it'll wind up in the middle instead of the back. Set it with the handle to the back and it will stop with the handle in the front. Elementary, my dear Watson.